Trends and the end of Retirement - Part 1

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Part 2 will be featured tomorrow.

There are many factors at this time that point to the fact that the idea of retirement will be coming to a close. One of the primary factors is mainly demographic in nature. Though the US still has replacement population above the current workforce, Europe and Japan are already seeing there replacement workforce dipping below those who would seek retirement in the next few years. This will put a strain on their productivity and lower demands for consumer spending that has not been seen for over 600 years.

Eighty million baby boomers here in the US will be drawing down their pensions, retirement savings and passive investments over the next eight years, which will push the stock market into a longer term bearish trend. The US economy will be strained by this, Japan and European economies will take a severe beating.

What this means is that in order to offset most of the draw downs from retirement earnings and withdrawals on the social security system plus other governmental welfare supplemental transfers, they must raise the payment of full benefits of retirement to the age of 75.

Over the next 2-5 years there will be a continued flattening of most major corporations. Though we have seen the corporate flow of downsizing and rightsizing; that is not by any means over. The technology explosion will be showing up with major advancements in information and communications. This will lesson the need for middle managers and redundant workers. There will be ample jobs for redundant workers, as they will be absorbed by new business start ups. Middle managers however will have to be retrained with specialized skills in order to keep pace with the technology boom that will be unleashed over the next 2 years. There will be a need for managers to develop people skills in working with employees under their charge. The benefits of using more complex customized programming such as SAP will outweigh the cost of doing so.

The advancement of technology will be in the areas of computers, telecommunications, and the internet. Moore’s law will keep working in the advent of the advancement of computers that will most likely be 5 times more powerful than what we have in the commercial market today. Along with that robotics that will start to replace more of the manual industrial jobs.

By 2025 most auto industries will be sent to the orient mainly China. The reason is with the projected demographics and its impact to the economy, the decline of average consumer spending, it would not be cost effective to build and sell automobiles here in the US, Europe or Japan.

Health industries will be getting more attention, for the aging population that will be working longer. Advancements in Gene therapies and stem cell research will also be giving these workers a better quality of life but at a price none the less. This will also boost positions in the health field inclusive of fitness, such as Personal Trainers and Aerobic Instructors.

Specialists in any field at this time will then be the one’s to write their own ticket especially those involved in Computer Programming, Network Administration and Information Technologies.

Most management activities will lean toward decision models and knowledge management systems. This will create major middle management unemployment, in an economy that will have over 10 million jobs available for the right people with specialized skills. Most corporations will attempt to keep their best workers paying more and be willing to retrain them, than letting them go to retirement.

By 2009 the peak spending of most baby boomers will occur and along with that robotics or artificial intelligence will start to pick up the pace in replacing the factory workers on their manual labor. There will be a great economic boom during 2009. The NASDAQ will see incredible growth from 2010 to 2015 and should hit 6500. For those in retirement or going into retirement they should be watchful for good investment in the technologies industry during this period.

Part 2 will be featured tomorrow.

About the Author

John Tebar Life Coach, Business Consultant, Entrepreneur, Author. Free weekly newsletter at http://holisticlifeplanningandresearch.com

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December 03 2007 12:38 am | Stock Market Charting

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